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Must be right - the polls say so
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. . .
Oct 22, 08 11:15
Post #1 of 38 (460 views)
Must be right - the polls say so
Can't Post
AP says it is even:
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent
http://news.yahoo.com/...yuDEjJszpdAh4hmyFz4D
NBC says 10 point lead: Poll:
Obama opens biggest lead over McCain
Obama 52 and McCain 42 percent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/
I wonder who's right?
TTBooooda
Oct 22, 08 11:18
Post #2 of 38 (452 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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It will be very interesting.
I just hope the LR takes a week off after the election.
The fatfoot is coming....
PeckerHead
Oct 22, 08 11:26
Post #3 of 38 (435 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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In reply to
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In Reply To:
AP says it is even:
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent
http://news.yahoo.com/...yuDEjJszpdAh4hmyFz4D
NBC says 10 point lead: Poll:
Obama opens biggest lead over McCain
Obama 52 and McCain 42 percent
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27297013/
I wonder who's right?
Obama Continues to Lead Nationally
Obama leads in all 10 national polls today. His average lead is 7.6%.
- Battleground (Obama +1)
- Diageo (Obama +6)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +8)
- IBD (Obama +6)
- Ipsos (Obama +8)
- Pew (Obama +14)
- Rasmussen (Obama +4)
- WSJ/NBC (Obama +10)
- WaPo/ABC (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +8)
(This post was
edited
by PeckerHead on Oct 22, 08 11:27)
Just Old Again
Oct 22, 08 11:30
Post #4 of 38 (421 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [PeckerHead]
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Piling on here (from
www.fivethirtyeight.com
):
-----------------------------------
Ken Lehner
"We are on our last bag of Life" - the wife
. . .
Oct 22, 08 11:34
Post #5 of 38 (412 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard]
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Quite the range. The national polls in that chart range from Obama +1 to Obama +14
Just Old Again
Oct 22, 08 11:37
Post #6 of 38 (398 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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In Reply To:
Quite the range. The national polls in that chart range from Obama +1 to Obama +14
Well, there's a +1 and two +4s, and a +14 and a +10. Other than those, the remaining 8 range from +6 to +9, which isn't that big a range.
-----------------------------------
Ken Lehner
"We are on our last bag of Life" - the wife
Old Scratch
Oct 22, 08 11:40
Post #7 of 38 (392 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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Its going to the wire. And Nov. 5 we still may not know who won.
. . .
Oct 22, 08 11:43
Post #8 of 38 (383 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard]
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Wide range with a narrow standard deviation
Helitech
Oct 22, 08 11:56
Post #9 of 38 (358 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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I just hope its a large win , tired of old Floridians and chads . If the poll is verbal some will go with the group rather than put the political wedge in a group friendship . None show a margin for error / % ,,,, ???
S. Pinkfontaine
Oct 22, 08 12:15
Post #10 of 38 (331 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [HUB]
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I'm following
electoral-vote.com
and it shows a pretty big lead for Obama. I think the
algorithm it uses
is pretty decent as well since it doesn't rely on any one poll. Also, the election in 2004 was definitely close and this website correctly showed that based on the algorithm. And based on the algorithm for 2008, it shows Obama with 364 EV's today. Now, it may get closer as the election draws near, but that is how it stands today.
--
"You're awesome!"
--Steve Pinkfontaine
Patience isn't a virtue. Patience is a waste of my time.
http://trainingoferic.blogspot.com/
(PM for permission)
Brian.
Oct 22, 08 12:19
Post #11 of 38 (317 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [erichollins]
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electoral-vote.com
This site is not a credible source for information. I would not rely on the information given.
Gator1736
Oct 22, 08 12:20
Post #12 of 38 (313 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.]
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Why?
Brian.
Oct 22, 08 12:28
Post #13 of 38 (298 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Gator1736]
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This site nor do others take into account the Wilder Effect.
Just Old Again
Oct 22, 08 12:34
Post #14 of 38 (286 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.]
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This site nor do others take into account the Wilder Effect.
Go to
www.fivethirtyeight.com
and look for expositions on the Bradley Effect, and why it is not relevant.
-----------------------------------
Ken Lehner
"We are on our last bag of Life" - the wife
Brian.
Oct 22, 08 12:36
Post #15 of 38 (281 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Old and Haggard]
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More credible sources state otherwise.
nickc
Oct 22, 08 12:40
Post #16 of 38 (273 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brent F]
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I was polled by Zogby last night on the presidential race. The questions were reasonable but there were several questions that were impossible to answer properly.
Questions where the pollster required only a yes or no answer but the question really required more. Questions like giving me one aspect of So-and-So's economic plan as a preface to the question but then asking whether I liked the ENTIRE plan not just that aspect. When I said I would have to read the whole plan to make a decision that wasn't allowed.
Or odd questions like "Do you believe the American Dream exists?" When I asked for their definition of the dream they couldn't give it to me.
Then a few off the wall questions like "Would you rather visit the Lincoln bedroom or the oval office on a tour of the Whitehouse?"
Overall there didn't seem to be a slant to the questions as the preface of the Obama questions was similar to the McCain ones.
The Lorax
Oct 22, 08 12:44
Post #17 of 38 (267 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.]
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In Reply To:
electoral-vote.com
This site is not a credible source for information. I would not rely on the information given.
thanks. i'm going to rely on you from now on for all my polling data. please keep me updated each time you talk to your friends about how they will be voting. i like to be on top of things.
unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothings going to get better. its not.
Rob C in FL
Oct 22, 08 12:51
Post #18 of 38 (256 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [nickc]
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Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:
"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1."
I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"Thank you for your participation."
That's
why I don't trust polls.
-------
Rob Cunningham
http://www.humanactioncourse.info
"Pas d'elle yeux Rhône que nous."
Mr. Tibbs
Oct 22, 08 12:57
Post #19 of 38 (240 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Rob C in FL]
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I will find the link later but Penn and Teller did a great Bullshit show on polls. They showed how you can get any numbers you wanted. It's all about how you ask the question.
Mr. Tibbs will justify your sins.
The Lorax
Oct 22, 08 13:11
Post #20 of 38 (225 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Rob C in FL]
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In Reply To:
Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:
"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1."
I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"Thank you for your participation."
That's
why I don't trust polls.
do you know that the pollster was trying to find out? perhaps the pollster didn't want to know about down the ballot candidates. for the most part they are not stupid people, unlike many of the people they poll.
unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothings going to get better. its not.
Bruce Wayne
Oct 22, 08 13:17
Post #21 of 38 (210 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [old-as-dirt]
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In reply to
]
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In Reply To:
In Reply To:
Reminds of a automatized telephone poll that I took four years ago. The key part, as best as I remember, went something like this:
"If you have decided which presidential candidate you will vote for press 1."
I had definitely decided, so I pressed 1.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
WTF??? Since I decidedly would not vote for either of those clowns, I scratched my head for a moment, then pressed 3.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you pl
an to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"If you plan to vote for George W. Bush, press 1. If you plan to vote for John Kerry, press 2."
I pressed 3 again.
"Thank you for your participation."
That's
why I don't trust polls.
do you know that the pollster was trying to find out? perhaps the pollster didn't want to know about down the ballot candidates. for the most part they are not stupid people, unlike many of the people they poll.
_________________________________________________
(This post was
edited
by Bruce Wayne on Oct 22, 08 13:19)
PeckerHead
Oct 22, 08 13:25
Post #22 of 38 (198 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.]
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More credible sources state otherwise.
Sorry Brian, but your trite one liners aren't very believable. Typically when someone refutes something they give some "credible sources" to back it up, that is, if they have any.
Myron_Bolitar
Oct 22, 08 13:27
Post #23 of 38 (193 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Mr. Tibbs]
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Exactly. I was polled last night as well. The pollster asked who are you voiting for Obama or McCain? I said Obama. The pollster responded with an incredulous but don't you know he wants to kill all the babies? I asked where did you hear that? The pollster responded from a boy at our lunch table...warning...don't trust the poll at Durham Intermediate School....
Brian.
Oct 22, 08 13:34
Post #24 of 38 (186 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [PeckerHead]
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Experts and the American public tend to disagree with your viewpoint.
Gator1736
Oct 22, 08 13:41
Post #25 of 38 (175 views)
Re: Must be right - the polls say so [Brian.]
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Hahahahaha!!!
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