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Are we REALLY going to attack Iran?
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atl_tony
Jun 30, 08 4:51
Post #1 of 33 (626 views)
Are we REALLY going to attack Iran?
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Read this this morning:
http://us.cnn.com/...9/us.iran/index.html
I know it is CNN...but are we really going to attack Iran? Or is this all just posturing so they think we may attack them and get them to quit their nuclear program? I haven't read enough about this situation (which is why I'm honestly asking) to know. We can debate the right or wrong in this, but in my mind the obvious question is how in the world would we pay for this?
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peter826
Jun 30, 08 5:57
Post #2 of 33 (603 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [atl_tony]
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You really need to take everything Seymour Hersh says with a really big grain of salt..
atl_tony
Jun 30, 08 6:08
Post #3 of 33 (594 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [peter826]
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Understood completely :)
That is why I asked - I know it is weird to ask honestly but I really wanted some more information/discussion. Obviously asking on a triathlon forum might be the wrong place to ask...
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trio_jeepy
Jun 30, 08 6:10
Post #4 of 33 (591 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [peter826]
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You really need to take everything Seymour Hersh says with a really big grain of salt..
Yeah, except for all the articles he wrote about the "stovepiping" of intelligence by DoD in the runup to Iraq turned out to be true. Now everybody is standing around pointing fingers at each other when it Cheney/Rumsfeld that refused to acknowledge evidence/opinions that didn't support their predetermined thesis. Hersh may not always be right, but there is clearly almost nobody else even doing the research. I mean, FoxNews' version of research is rereading the White House's press clippings on the air.
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squid
Jun 30, 08 6:30
Post #5 of 33 (572 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [atl_tony]
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The US has screwed around in Iran's internal affairs in the past. We've attacked and occupied the countries on either side of Iran. We threatening them repeatedly. And for some reason we think they should just going to roll over and give up their nuclear program. (?)
ajfranke
Jun 30, 08 6:58
Post #6 of 33 (553 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [atl_tony]
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Pay no attention at all to Seymour Hersch.
Having said that, your question seems to assume we are in the driver's seat. Not so much.
Israel has a serious, existential problem. A more interesting question is, if they decide they need to attack, do we try to stop them?
Iran is the most serious problem in the world today. Unlike the failed government in North Korea, they have the cash flow to cause real problems and the desire to do the same. Bush has taken out one of the axis of evil and the other is partially defanged. His successor is going to have to deal with the last and most difficult member.
Absent the use of nuclear weapons, Israel's ability to attack is very limited. They accomplished essentially nothing in their attack on Lebanon a year ago, and that is right in their backyard. What would they do differently that would allow them to succeed with a much more difficult attack when they failed with an easier one?
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peter826
Jun 30, 08 7:40
Post #7 of 33 (521 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [trio_jeepy]
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Yeah, except for all the articles he wrote about the "stovepiping" of intelligence by DoD in the runup to Iraq turned out to be true. Now everybody is standing around pointing fingers at each other when it Cheney/Rumsfeld that refused to acknowledge evidence/opinions that didn't support their predetermined thesis. Hersh may not always be right, but there is clearly almost nobody else even doing the research. I mean, FoxNews' version of research is rereading the White House's press clippings on the air.
Well, he writes a lot of stuff. Some of it will be true, I suppose.
Look, Hersh has been writing the same stuff about us attack Iran since at least 2005. He's said multiple times that we were close to attacking (IIRC, we were supposed to attack last summer), none of it has ever happened.
His sources are never given. It's always stuff like "A man close to sources in the Pentagon said.."
I enjoy his writing, but always taken with a grain of salt...
ajfranke
Jun 30, 08 8:01
Post #8 of 33 (505 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [peter826]
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Let me guess, he has an anonymous single source, who can not be named for fear of being compromised.
Hersh's research is what he decides to make up. That is why he is overseas writing for the Guardian.
First google hit from April, 2006, indistinguishable from what he is writing now:
The Bush Administration, while publicly advocating diplomacy in order to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack. Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium.
I am not remembering any retraction.
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This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
jkca1
Jun 30, 08 10:14
Post #9 of 33 (445 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [atl_tony]
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Would anyone be surprised if we attacked Iran? Anyone? Isn't planning part of the defense department's job? So a go could happen anytime. It's as simple as giving an order.
"Obama for President."
big kahuna
Jun 30, 08 10:16
Post #10 of 33 (442 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [trio_jeepy]
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Sy Hersh is obviously hoping to spoil any incipient plan the U.S. MAY be cooking up by publishing this nonsense. No suprise, coming as it does from the Birdcage Liner of Record.
BK
LorenzoP
Jun 30, 08 10:47
Post #11 of 33 (420 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [jkca1]
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I'd be very surprised if we attacked Iran - it's a fight we could not win, and even Bush and Cheney aren't so stupid and arrogant to not see that.
jkca1
Jun 30, 08 11:28
Post #12 of 33 (394 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [LorenzoP]
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Who said anything about a war? An attack is easy. We blow up something strategic just to prove we can. I don't thing GW is too worried about how the Iranians feel about us, or if it's right, so what's to stop him?
"Obama for President."
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 12:57
Post #13 of 33 (347 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [jkca1]
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"Who said anything about a war? An attack is easy."
Iran isn't as big a threat as the hawks make it out to be, not even to Israel. Kind of like Sadaam's WMD's.
An attack on another nation essentially is a declaration of war. Even the current adminstration isn't that stupid to get involved there. If the US did start a war with Iran it would not fly with the rest of the world unless of course Iran attacked first. You would not receive the same sort of allied support as with Iraq or Afghanistan unless there was initial genuine aggression from Iran. The Iranians realize that and know they would be anniliated in any conflict with the USA. Expect some rhetoric and sabre rattling from both sides, but no war at this time.
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
(This post was
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Tom Demerly
Jun 30, 08 13:13
Post #14 of 33 (333 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [atl_tony]
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If our (hypothetical) covert Special Operations campaign were to succeed, we would not have to conduct a conventional campaign against Iran. Something to include in your prayers perhaps...
http://www.bikesportmichigan.com/
(NOTE: This poster owns a retail business selling triathlon related products).
dave_w
Jun 30, 08 13:22
Post #15 of 33 (322 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [cerveloguy]
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Iran isn't as big a threat as the hawks make it out to be, not even to Israel. Kind of like Sadaam's WMD's.
That's an interesting statement. If you know things about Iran that the Israel's mossad doesn't, you should tell them. Heck, you should tell us.
"It's all about self-esteem"
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 13:58
Post #16 of 33 (301 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [dave_w]
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If you really think that Iran is that huge a threat to the US or even Israel then you must be spending a lot of time listening to right wing radio talk shows. A pain in the ass at times yes, but not a huge enough threat to justify an invasion. But then of course Iraq was a huge threat also, so why not invade another country while we're at it.
As for the mossad, the world is still to this day waiting for their apology for the murder of that innocent Lebanese waiter in Norway in the 70's who they mistook for PLO member. They're not nice people.
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
LorenzoP
Jun 30, 08 14:19
Post #17 of 33 (286 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [jkca1]
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please tell me you are being funny - - we blow up something in Iran and they and the rest of the world does not see that as an act of war?
We attack Iran and any thread of Good Will left in the world is gone - the Iranian people get fully behind their faltering gov'ment - and we get our butts kicked.
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 14:20
Post #18 of 33 (285 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [dave_w]
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Good article that sums up my feelings on the subject of a war with Iran.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21592
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
jkca1
Jun 30, 08 14:25
Post #19 of 33 (282 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [LorenzoP]
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Not trying to be funny. Just my view that GW, in his infinite wisdom, doesn't care what you, me or the world thinks. If he deems Iran a threat, so be it.
"Obama for President."
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 14:28
Post #20 of 33 (282 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [LorenzoP]
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Iran is a country with 70 million people and about three times the size of Texas. It would take a lot of boots on the ground to try to control it.
What is interesting about Iran - totally unlike with Iraq or Afghanistan, it's only the USA (and maybe Israel) that has ever mentioned going to war with Iran. If it were to happen there would be no Tony Blair's or NATO countries lining up to follow the USA in to battle.
The US would be going it alone on this one, so that's yet another reason why it's highly unlikely to happen.
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
LorenzoP
Jun 30, 08 14:39
Post #21 of 33 (275 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [jkca1]
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I know what you are getting at about Bush - - and when I boldly claim that Bush and Cheney are not arrogant or stupid enough to attack Iran - - when I make such a claim I'm praying skyward to any god, I've got all my fingers crossed, and also my legs crossed to protect my 'nads
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 14:45
Post #22 of 33 (270 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [LorenzoP]
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"Bush and Cheney are not arrogant or stupid enough to attack Iran "
Given their past history it would be almost like them to do something ridiculous like invade Iran just before going out of office. I do say "almost" but we can't be sure until Obama is sworn in.
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
big kahuna
Jun 30, 08 14:52
Post #23 of 33 (268 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [LorenzoP]
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We attack Iran and any thread of Good Will left in the world is gone
Who gives a shit about the rest of the world?
The Iranian people get fully behind their faltering gov'ment
Maybe. Maybe not. You old enough to remember anything about the Iran-Iraq War? Towards the end, Republican Guards were forcing many young men into the fight at the point of an AK-47. It would be even more difficult nowadays, after the initial combat phase. That house is rotting from the inside.
And we get our butts kicked.
Militarily? Are you joking or trying to be funny? Boots on the ground is one thing, but the ability to control SLOC and establish air supremacy, against a bunch of 30 year-old F-14s, and attain overall battlespace dominance, is another. No military in the world can stand up against us in a straight-up fight. None. An insurgency and guerilla-type warfare is different, granted.
Mind you, I'm not advocating for a war with Iran. I'm examining the tactical and strategic ability of the U.S. to do it. And the will of the Bush administration to do it, as G.W. obviously (if he thinks it's the right thing to do) will go ahead with it, regardless of the opinion of "the rest of the world."
BK
big kahuna
Jun 30, 08 15:20
Post #24 of 33 (260 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [cerveloguy]
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Given their past history it would be almost like them to do something ridiculous like invade Iran just before going out of office.
If Dubya's gonna do it, it'll be well before then. Perhaps by the end of summer.
I do say "almost" but we can't be sure until Obama is sworn in.
Aren't you Canadian? That may explain why you hope, and think, he's going to win. Which he won't. Your sentence implies that he's even more of a wuss than he already gives the appearance of being.
BK
cerveloguy
Jun 30, 08 16:00
Post #25 of 33 (244 views)
Re: Are we REALLY going to attack Iran? [big kahuna]
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"Aren't you Canadian?"
That's about the only thing you got right on your previous post.:-)
"OK, I'll admit I screwed up the facts"
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