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Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost
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parkito
Jul 27, 08 14:20
Post #1 of 35 (419 views)
Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost
Can't Post
Don'tcha just hate it when Art is right?
Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost
http://news.yahoo.com/...Cmb.ZtmlZcmL.kYLewgF
BAGHDAD - The United States is now winning the war that two years ago seemed lost. Limited, sometimes sharp fighting and periodic terrorist bombings in Iraq are likely to continue, possibly for years. But the Iraqi government and the U.S. now are able to shift focus from mainly combat to mainly building the fragile beginnings of peace — a transition that many found almost unthinkable as recently as one year ago.
<snip>
Behold the turtle! He makes progess only when he sticks his neck out. (
James Bryant Conant
)
GET OFF THE F*%KING WALL!!!!!!! (
Doug Stern
)
Brevity is the soul of wit. (
William Shakespeare
)
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 14:28
Post #2 of 35 (413 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [parkito]
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Well, now that the AP says that, it must be true, and can Reuters be far behind.
The NY Times came on board today as well.
The militia that was once the biggest defender of poor Shiites in
Iraq
, the
Mahdi Army
, has been profoundly weakened in a number of neighborhoods across Baghdad, in an important, if tentative, milestone for stability in Iraq.
It is a remarkable change from years past, when the militia, led by the anti-American cleric
Moktada al-Sadr
, controlled a broad swath of Baghdad, including local governments and police forces. But its use of extortion and violence began alienating much of the Shiite population to the point that many quietly supported American military sweeps against the group.
Prime Minister
Nuri Kamal al-Maliki
struck another blow this spring, when he led a military operation against it in Baghdad and in several southern cities.
The shift, if it holds, would solidify a transfer of power from Mr. Sadr, who had lorded his once broad political support over the government, to Mr. Maliki, who is increasingly seen as a true national leader.
http://www.nytimes.com/...gin&oref=slogin#
Obama's website is going to have to get airbrushed again. He only just got done airbrushing the no political progress description into an inadequate political progress description.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
sphere
Jul 27, 08 15:24
Post #3 of 35 (395 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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So what does this mean for the general election, now that Obama and McCain are promoting essentially the same plan for withdrawal in Iraq and additional troops in Afghanistan?
McCain can thump his chest over the success of the surge and Obama can point to his initial opposition, but at the end of the day, their plans for moving forward are not worth an attempt to draw contrast. The war is effectively a dead issue, with energy/economy sitting squarely at the top of everyone's list, and neither has made a substantial move on that front.
What it means, I think, is that with Michigan up for grabs and the economy taking top billing, your guy will be back on the GOP ticket in November. I don't know how he's polling right now, but he's the logical choice for veep, IMO.
"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." - George F. Will
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 15:35
Post #4 of 35 (390 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [sphere]
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So what does this mean for the general election?
I don't know. I only know that people pretty much get the leaders they deserve. If we as a people want to pick the guy that believed in persevering and winning, we can do that. If as a people we want to pick a guy that was perfectly willing to lose, we can do that too.
Truman fought through the Berlin Airlift, despite a lot of opposition, and wound up winning an unexpected victory as a result. Does the America of today have the wisdom of the America of 60 years ago?
Over the course of 1947, the year before the election, Henry Wallace filled stadiums across America with hundreds of thousands of adoring supporters who paid to see him speak. It was a bigger political phenomenon than what we saw with the Howard Dean campaign of 2003 or Barack Obama in 2007. At Wallace’s third-party convention, young liberals like George McGovern thrilled to his oratory. But what he preached — that America should abandon Berlin to the Soviets, that American foreign policy initiatives like the Marshall Plan were unilateralist, and that we should not interfere with Russian actions in Eastern Europe — was very much at odds with Truman’s policies.
To win in November, Truman had to convince Democrats and liberals that he — not Wallace — had the right approach to dealing with the Soviets. The Berlin Airlift was a big part of that message. If Wallace had continued to receive the double digit support he was registering in the polls before the blockade — in fact, if he had received 70,000 more votes in the right states — Dewey would have won the election. His support crumbled mostly because of what was occurring in the skies over Berlin.
http://topics.blogs.nytimes.com/...t-changed-our-lives/
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
parkito
Jul 27, 08 16:16
Post #5 of 35 (377 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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Interesting parallel.
Obama seems to be already managing expectations in Afghanistan in the event that he is elected:
Obama interview: U.S. goals in Afghanistan 'should be relatively modest'
http://news.yahoo.com/...4PNI2tPGndFUdpms0NUE
Behold the turtle! He makes progess only when he sticks his neck out. (
James Bryant Conant
)
GET OFF THE F*%KING WALL!!!!!!! (
Doug Stern
)
Brevity is the soul of wit. (
William Shakespeare
)
sphere
Jul 27, 08 16:30
Post #6 of 35 (375 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [parkito]
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"I'm not here to lay out a comprehensive military strategy. That's the job of our commanders on the ground. I can tell you what our strategic goals should be. They should be relatively modest. We shouldn't want to take over the country. We should want to get out of there as quickly as we can and help the Afghans govern themselves and provide for their own security. Our critical goal should be to make sure that the Taliban and al Qaida are routed and that they cannot project threats against us from that region. And to do that I think we need more troops. I also think that we need to deal with the situation in Pakistan and the fact that terrorists are able to operate with relative freedom of movement there right now."
That sounds about right.
What you call "managing expectations" sounds a lot like Bush's pre-Iraq foreign policy proclamation, which was also modest, relatively speaking.
"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." - George F. Will
dave_w
Jul 27, 08 16:48
Post #7 of 35 (362 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [parkito]
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In Reply To
Don'tcha just hate it when Art is right?
Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost
http://news.yahoo.com/...Cmb.ZtmlZcmL.kYLewgF
BAGHDAD - The United States is now winning the war that two years ago seemed lost. Limited, sometimes sharp fighting and periodic terrorist bombings in Iraq are likely to continue, possibly for years. But the Iraqi government and the U.S. now are able to shift focus from mainly combat to mainly building the fragile beginnings of peace — a transition that many found almost unthinkable as recently as one year ago.
<snip>
Well the good news is that Art's not the kind of guy who'll rub your face in it if he ends up being right... :) I agree with what Sphere is saying, and have been asking if the loss of Iraq as a driving issue would weaken Obama as a candidate. I would think that there would be many people that take a second look at the broader picture if the two candidates end up looking the same on iraq.
"It's all about self-esteem"
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 16:51
Post #8 of 35 (358 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [sphere]
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We should want to get out of there as quickly as we can and help the Afghans govern themselves and provide for their own security.
This sounds like the Democrats talking about Iraq two years ago. It is almost word for word what my Congressman told me when I quized him at a town hall meeting. He said he wanted to do a "strategic withdrawal" (the buzz word at the time) and make sure Iraq was secure and not a base for AQ. He had no answer when I asked "You want to do that by withdrawing?"
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
slowguy
Jul 27, 08 16:53
Post #9 of 35 (357 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [sphere]
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"I also think that we need to deal with the situation in Pakistan and the fact that terrorists are able to operate with relative freedom of movement there right now."
Interesting notion. What exactly do you think he has in mind for us to do about terrorists being able to operate inside the borders of another sovereign nation, and an ally (ostensibly) at that?
Slowguy
(insert pithy phrase here...)
spot
Jul 27, 08 17:01
Post #10 of 35 (353 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [slowguy]
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That is the 900lb gorilla, IMHO. Things started going south in Afghanistan when Pakistan cut a deal with the radical Islamists and let them use the NW territory as a base. But what do we do about it? Sending in US troops is a complete non-starter. A large-scale government crackdown would be hugely unpopular amongst the masses, who already view the government as US stooges. Figuring out how to deal with this situation in order to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan is going to be the foreign policy issue that probably most vexes the next president, not Iraq.
Spot
Cervelo / Kuota Mafia Member
"Mine goes to 11...."
sphere
Jul 27, 08 17:03
Post #11 of 35 (350 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [slowguy]
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I believe he's already addressed that question, and was roundly criticized by conservatives for the answer he gave.
That was before the administration did exactly what he proposed, less than two months after giving that answer. I haven't heard much criticism of it since.
I suspect McCain's and Obama's handling of Pakistan's soft stance would be essentially the same, and not all that different from Bush's.
"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." - George F. Will
slowguy
Jul 27, 08 17:09
Post #12 of 35 (343 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [sphere]
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"I believe he's already addressed that question"
I must have missed it. I haven't found too much to get excited about in either the primaries or general election campaigning that has taken place over what,..the last five years? At least it feels like that long.
Quite frankly, I could give half a shit if terrorists can operate inside the borders of Pakistan. I'd like to prevent them from operating across international borders, but after that, it's the problem of whatever nation they operate in to deal with them. I know, I know, that probably sounds familiar. I got it from one of our previous National Strategies for Combating Terrorism.
Slowguy
(insert pithy phrase here...)
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 17:13
Post #13 of 35 (339 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [spot]
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Ironically, our success in Iraq is causing problems in Afghanistan to get worse. There is no safe haven in Iraq any longer, so AQ has retreated to its one remaining safe have in Pakistan from which it can cause havoc in Afghanistan.
I know this sounds cruel, but these are the problems to have. AQ has been dealt a terrible blow in a critical country that bin Laden set up as a must win for AQ. One's poll numbers tend to go in the toilet when you get your ass handed to you in a self designated must win state, and bin Laden's and AQ's numbers have done exactly that.
Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan is not a must win state for the US. All we need to accomplish there is prevent AQ from maintaining a workable base of operations to cause havoc elsewhere, and we are doing that. Afghanistan is simply not an important country the way Iraq is for a long list of reasons. We don't need to solve Afghanistan, we just need to keep it under control and give the people a chance to build a better life there.
There is no solution for Pakistan. I haven't heard Obama talk about invading the country lately. We can only deal with it as best we can and try to create opportunities where the politics turn our way to allow accomplishing something. Those chances don't seem too promising right now, but things have a way of changing.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
LorenzoP
Jul 27, 08 17:15
Post #14 of 35 (337 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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if we move the surge to Afghanistan, then, the bad guys will just go back to Iraq and it will be whack-a-mole all over again.
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 17:23
Post #15 of 35 (331 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [LorenzoP]
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We probably do need to do some kind of surge in Afghanistan. I have no clue what would be involved or whether we could expect the kinds of results in Iraq. My guess is that we could not be so successful for a long list of reasons, one of which is the availability of a safe haven over the border.
AQ is not welcome in Iraq any longer, so I disagree with the whack a mole analogy in this case.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
sphere
Jul 27, 08 17:53
Post #16 of 35 (319 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [slowguy]
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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) — Pakistan on Friday criticized U.S. presidential hopeful
Barack Obama
for saying that, if elected, he might order unilateral military strikes inside this Islamic nation to root out terrorists.
...
Obama triggered anger in Pakistan, a key ally of the United States in its war on terror, when he said in a speech Wednesday that as president he would order U.S. military action against terrorists in Pakistan's tribal region bordering Afghanistan if intelligence warranted it.
...
"There are terrorists holed up in those mountains who murdered 3,000 Americans. They are plotting to strike again," Obama said. "If we have actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf will not act, we will."
His first reference (that I'm aware of) was during the YouTube debate that I attended at The Citadel, which is what - along with the meeting-without-preconditions comment - launched the "naive" narrative. He said he would authorize an AQ strike in Pakistan, given actionable intel. A few short weeks later, President Bush authorized the first of several AQ strikes in Northern Pakistan. I can't imagine McCain would pass up the chance either.
Regarding the election cycle, I couldn't agree more. Even for a political junkie like me, it's getting tiresome. It's certainly taken a toll on the level of intelligent discussion around here. I may have to bump up Art's "Which coward changed my signature line" thread just to create a diversion.
"The nice part about being a pessimist is that you are constantly being either proven right or pleasantly surprised." - George F. Will
Steve Hawley
Jul 27, 08 18:45
Post #17 of 35 (305 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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It's not "the surge" as in send a few more brigades here and there. "The Surge" (in terms of increased combat troop strength) was a (very necessary) component of an overall COIN strategy in Iraq; but just that--a component (a part of an overall thing). The type of COIN strategy that is bearing fruit in Iraq is not going to be the same exact type of strategy that will bear similar fruit in Afghanistan. It may prove that we need to surge troop levels in OEF-as a component of a strategy tailored to the challenges there--or we may not. To simply bandy about "surging" troops here and there is a highly simplistic way of looking at an immensely complex challenge for our Nation. There are some very serious issues in Afghanistan and a dearth of US combat troops is only one (one) of many important issues that will need to be improved upon there to move into a better situation.
NOT directed at anyone person in this thread--just another opinion for public consumption/consideration.
/r
Steve
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 18:57
Post #18 of 35 (297 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [Steve Hawley]
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Afghanistan is very different.
From where I sit, safe in my bedroom, the only real problem is we are taking too many, way too many casualties. We are accomplishing the goal of its not being a safe haven for terrorists. That is important, but it is just about the only important thing to do in Afghanistan. Events in Afghanistan just don't have the importance or regional impact of events in Iraq. There is no leverage. Changes in Afghanistan don't really affect anywhere other than Afghanistan.
We obviously need a different strategy, but with the safe haven over in Pakistan complicating things and the limited strategic value of the country, I don't know what that would be.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
LorenzoP
Jul 27, 08 21:04
Post #19 of 35 (284 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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isn't it worth the cost and sacrifice to bring freedom, security and democracy to the people of Afghanistan? Didn't we learn that from your Berlin Airlift thread.
(This post was
edited
by LorenzoP on Jul 27, 08 21:05)
ajfranke
Jul 27, 08 23:38
Post #20 of 35 (261 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [LorenzoP]
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That is a tough question and an open question in my mind with regard to Afghanistan. I haven't heard that case made well enough as I have for Iraq. Fatmouse includes my quote in his signature line to this day, America can't do everything though it doesn't follow that we should do nothing.
The question is what things are best to do? The answer is beyond my pay grade.
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This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
GregX
Jul 28, 08 6:49
Post #21 of 35 (224 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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Changes in Afghanistan don't really affect anywhere other than Afghanistan.
you've got to be f*cking kidding.
uh, "changes" there just a few years ago (arabs going there to train courtesy of taliban support) caused the destruction of the WTC. or did you somehow happen to miss that news event of sept. 11, 2001 ?
"Half of what we taught you is wrong. Unfortunately, we do not know which half."
-- Dean and cardiologist C. S. Burwell to a Harvard Med School graduating class.
Where would
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ajfranke
Jul 28, 08 9:52
Post #22 of 35 (184 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [GregX]
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Apparently you missed this part of the post from two sentences earlier:
We are accomplishing the goal of its not being a safe haven for terrorists. That is important, but it is just about the only important thing to do in Afghanistan.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
ajfranke
Jul 28, 08 9:59
Post #23 of 35 (178 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [LorenzoP]
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LorenzoP, I owe you an apology. You were prescient with this comment of yours that I ridiculed at the time:
When Obama and the main stream media return from their hallowed trip, we'll have the straight scoop. : )
Sure enough, Obama and the main stream media are back, and they have let the cat out of the bag that we are winning as shown in the articles above.
Well done.
____
This forum is going to be a place of civil discourse, and those who wish to foment hate and discord are no longer welcome here. -- slowman 11/8/04
Art Franke
squid
Jul 28, 08 10:19
Post #24 of 35 (167 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [parkito]
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The United States is
now
winning the war
Yeah, but he's been saying it for the last 4 years
Mike Lamb
Jul 28, 08 10:19
Post #25 of 35 (142 views)
Re: Analysis: US now winning Iraq war that seemed lost [ajfranke]
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Art, I have to say that your arrogance and complete insufferability, your "gotcha" games of retrieving old posts, etc. etc., make it very difficult to legitimately enjoy good news out of Iraq. Just please ponder the effect you are having on at least one member of this board and, quite possibly, others.
And also remember that, despite your nonsense to the contrary NO ONE wants to see Iraq fail or the US embarassed.
f/k/a mclamb6
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